Iran Flirts With Engaging the U.S.

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The Iranians are signaling that they want talks with the West --and hinting that they are ready for a serious dialogue with theGreat Satan in Washington. But while they discuss engagement, theyremain wary of it. The Iranians are almost coquettish: They likebeing wooed, and they enjoy being the center of attention, but theyaren't quite ready to say yes.
And even as they talk of diplomacy, the Iranians continue tobrandish the weapons of war. The latest example was the test firingyesterday of a Shahab-3 missile, which with its 1,200-mile range iscapable of hitting Israel. "Our hands are always on thetrigger," said Revolutionary Guard Gen. Hossein Salami.
The mixed messages are especially evident on the nuclear issue,where Mottaki raised hopes last week that the Iranians mightrespond favorably to a new proposal for negotiations, then in hisformal response didn't give a clear, yes-or-no answer. The UnitedStates and the other permanent members of the U.N. Security Council had proposed a "freeze-for-freeze" deal, in which Iranwould agree not to expand its nuclear program in exchange for afreeze on additional U.N. sanctions, as a prelude to negotiations. But in a three-pageletter to Javier Solana , the European Union 's top diplomat, Mottaki offered only a noncommittal "genericresponse," according to one person who read the letter.
What course is Iran pursuing? The leaders themselves probablyaren't sure. A lively debate is under way in Tehran, withhard-liners arguing that the West is weak and that Iran shouldrefuse any compromises, and a more pragmatic faction contendingthat now is the time for Iran to come to the table and consolidateits gains.
This debate is surfacing in the Iranian press and in somestatements by senior officials, according to an analysis by the"Persia House" group at the consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton : They note "a widening rift between camps within thegoverning elite, as well as popular support for compromise."
Mottaki offered a glimpse of Iran's thinking during an interviewhere last week and a subsequent meeting with a group of reporters.Running through his remarks was a self-confidence that Iran is upin the Middle East while its adversaries, the United States andIsrael, are down.
"There was a day when the passage of a U.S. warship offshore couldchange governments -- that's how much people feared the UnitedStates," he told me. "Today, America has 150,000 troops in Iraq andit is unable to provide security for Iraqis, or even for its ownforces."
The Iranian diplomat discounted the threat of U.S. or Israelimilitary action. Talk of an American attack was just "psychologicalwarfare," he said. As for Israel, after its difficulties in the2006 Lebanon war, "the chance that the Israeli government willattack the region again is almost nil," he told the journalists.Paradoxically, perhaps, the Iranians trust American rationality --and are convinced it would be folly for the Bush administration toattack Iran when so many U.S. troops are vulnerable in Iraq andAfghanistan.
When I pressed Mottaki on how Iran would respond if the nextpresident proposed a broad diplomatic dialogue, he was cautious. Hesaid that as a former Iranian ambassador to Japan, he had come torespect the Japanese approach of navigating unknown waterscarefully. There is enormous mistrust between Iran and America, hesaid, so it is important to be realistic about what diplomacy canaccomplish.
Some Iranian moderates have told me they would like to see a broadstrategic dialogue between the two countries, similar to Henry Kissinger 's breakthrough conversations with the Chinese in 1971. But Mottakicautioned that, while it was easy to say "let's sit down andtalk about everything," this approach might produce adiplomatic version of "tarouf" -- an Iranian expressionfor the ritual politeness in which people say things just to benice. He seemed to prefer a process in which the two sides wouldinitially discuss one or two pressing issues and, if they madeprogress, move on to a broader dialogue.
"The first word that diplomats are taught is compromise," Mottakisaid at one point. But for a proud, prickly and supremely confidentIran, the first word right now seems to be "maybe." Learning thelanguage of "yes" will take a long while.
The writer is co-host of PostGlobal , an online discussion of international issues. His e-mail addressis davidignatius@washpost.com .