Brewing storm over Labour\'s dream of wind power future

Tag : bad power supply

China is already the world's number-two maker of solar panels. Thekit is now routinely fitted on new houses. This month's NationalEnergy Plan shows the country is hellbent on cutting oil imports.The latest batch of 6m students will have to master the new greenenergy doctrine to get into university.
Washington and Beijing are making cold geo-political calculations.Neither wants to be pushed around by hostile petro-powers, or fallhostage to oil at $200 a barrel. Both are going nuclear, buturanium is scarce. Both have coal, but the technology of carboncapture has not yet been cracked.
This is the global picture as Labour releases its long-awaitedRenewable Energy Strategy today, hopefully ending years of drift,muddle, and a string of ostrich policy papers. It is very late inthe day to play catch-up. Read more by Ambrose Evans Pritchard
It aims to raise the green share of Britain's energy to 15pc by2020, from under 2pc today. This much we knew already. Labouragreed to the target at an EU accord last year.
From what has been trailed, it boils down to a dash for wind.Fast-track planning authority will allow officials to rush throughapproval for at least 3,500 wind turbines on hilltops and offshoresandbanks on 11 sites along the coasts. An estimated £100bnwill be spent on wind subsidies in one form or another.
The Severn tidal barrage will help, perhaps producing 5pc of thecountry's electricity. Pity the salmon. The rest will come fromcoaxing us to fit solar heaters in our homes, and forcing us toinsulate.
There will be tax breaks for electric cars, the new hope.Specialists think lithium-ion batteries run off the mains couldslash fuel demand for motor engines by half. But this is a long wayoff. Strip out the frills and the entire strategy comes down towind. It means lifting wind generation from 4 gigawatts to 25GW, a525pc leap. The UK's current capacity is 76 GW from all sources.
"This target is not feasible," said Dr John Constable, director ofthe Renewable Energy Foundation. "We are talking about a phenomenalamount of energy. There are not enough machines or boats availableto build it all."
Siemens has sold out of turbines until 2012. The world has only oneship able to place the 200-ton turbines offshore.
"The Government is being insincere. They know they won't be aroundin 12 years when this fails," added Dr Constable.
Wind enthusiasts say the debate in Britain is stuck in a time-warp,rehearsing the cost arguments of the late 1990s when oil was cheap.The latest 2.5 megawatt giants are vastly more efficient that theold mini-mills. Drawing on aerospace technology, they have rotorsthat dwarf the wingspan of an Airbus A380 superjumbo.
They have cut costs to $0.08 a kilowatt hour in Texas, easilyundercutting gas at today's price. This compares to $0.065 fornuclear and $0.05 for coal ( without carbon capture), according tothe US Electric Power Research Institute.
Costs are higher in the UK. Offshore farms are yet more expensive.A report by the Centre for Policy Studies said the experience ofDenmark shows that windmills add almost no net electricity becausepower plants have to be kept running for when the wind fails toblow.
The claims infuriate the British Wind Energy Association. "This isridiculous. If it were true, why would Denmark now be raising theaverage wind share of its electricity from 20pc to 27pc in fiveyears?" said the BWEA's director, Chris Tomlinson.
The BWEA said tracking systems are now so sophisticated that theycan predict wind supply on an hourly basis, greatly reducing theneed for slack. While some back-up capacity is needed, the plantscan run at much lower levels - cutting the need for fossil fuels.
"This renewable target is a huge opportunity to use our skills fromNorth Sea oil and gas and create a whole new industry," he said.The Government estimates that the green push will create 160,000jobs.
Scandinavian, German and Spanish companies manufacture most of thekit for wind farms, although Denmark's Vestas makes blades in theIsle of Wight. Although Britain's Renewable Energy Systems hasemerged as global player.
Scottish & Southern Energy, Centrica, E.on's Powergen, andIberdrola's Scottish Power are all betting on UK wind, despitecomplaints of rampant cost inflation. Shell has pulled out of theLondon Array project - supposed to produce a quarter of London'selectricity - to pursue richer pickings in the US.
Matthew Farrow, the CBI's energy chief, said Labour's dash for windis misguided and far too expensive. "This renewables target is justa distraction. We have left it dangerously late to renew ournuclear power stations. As a nation, we really are up against avery serious deadline here," he said.
Mr Farrow said the Government had been "half-hearted" about cleancoal. But that would require No 11 Downing Street to bite thebullet on hefty subsidies for carbon capture and storage. Itdoesn't have the money. The Budget deficit is already in breach ofEU rules.
Wulf Bernotat, head of E.on, said Labour seems to have been sweptway by a "romantic" belief in the magic of green power, neglectingto deal with the central threat, which is that over half of theUK's power plants will soon be obsolete.
"The UK is in a very bad situation. You cannot replace 60pc of thecountry's generating capacity by betting on renewables. It will bedecades before we reach that point, and until then Britain is goingto need coal-fired units. I hope some realism comes through inenergy policy," he said.
The risk for Britain is that it gets so enthused - as a lateconvert - by new forms of eco-friendly energy that it forgets todeal with the meat and potatoes of daily power supply. You can gettoo much of a good thing.