Cotto in a good fight or Margarito in a battle

Tag : Variable Speed Grinder

Conventional wisdom promises Saturday’s fight will be aclassic -- a standard of welterweight wildness we use for decadesto come. Two sluggers, one a Puerto Rican and the other a Mexican,about whose punches the first descriptive verb to come to mind is“pulverize.” The best fight we will have seen sinceVazquez-Marquez III. The best fight we are going to see untilVazquez-Marquez IV.
But what if it isn’t? What if Saturday’s fight does notdeliver? Who do we blame?
Miguel Cotto. And it might mark his finest hour.
This weekend at MGM Grand, Cotto will defend his WBA welterweighttitle against former WBO and IBF champion Antonio Margarito.Because of Floyd Mayweather’s felicitous exit from our sport,Cotto-Margarito will determine the best fighter in boxing’sbest division -- whatever sanctioning bodies or magazines say aboutit.
I’ll be there. In fact, all four of our weekly columnistswill be there. It’s that big of an event. Even among thepros, expectations are quite high. But right now, before things gettoo febrile, maybe a little tempering is in order. What do you say?
Cotto is the variable. For the first time in his career, he will gointo a superfight considered the multidimensional guy. AgainstShane Mosley, Zab Judah, and to a lesser extent, Paulie Malignaggi,Cotto was considered the limited, if potent, slugger.
But that impression changed pretty drastically after Cotto’sfight against Mosley in November. Cotto showed he could box andmove as well as Mosley. He also showed he’s capable ofdeciding to go backwards.
Antonio Margarito is not. If Cotto always had retreat in his mindas a third option -- and a Mosley left hook in Round 9 eliminatedOptions 1 and 2 -- Margarito doesn’t. He has seen others gobackwards, sure. But to Margarito those others didn’t appearto be fighting at the time, so why dwell on it?
Margarito is the constant. Given his druthers, Margarito will notlet this fight see the final bell. So rather than even have Vegasjudges at ringside, why not raffle those fantastic raised seats tothree lucky Tijuanenses, eh Tony?
To ensure Margarito does not do what he did to Kermit Cintron inApril, Cotto must attain Margarito’s respect early. He mustfind a way to get in Margarito’s mind and reprogram him. Hemust convince Margarito that marching forward and winging shotswill not do.
But by instinct and national tradition, Margarito is hard-wired toapply pressure. Take shots to the head, take shots to the body,swing and miss often, perhaps -- but always apply pressure.There’s only one way for Cotto to stop this. It’s thesame way he adjusted Mosley’s strategy eight months ago.
The fencer’s jab. Because he gives up a significant heightand reach advantage to everyone he faces, and because he does hisbest work on the inside, Cotto has acquired an interesting way ofclosing distance. He sets a large space between his feet, skips hisback foot almost to the heel of his lead foot and thrusts forward.The pointed toe of his left foot rises past knee level. And thenjust as it lands, his left glove fires out from his forehead.
Cotto was quick enough to land this punch on Mosley, and there'severy reason to think he’s quick enough to land it onMargarito. Even a forward-charging Margarito? Yes, becauseMargarito’s forward charge often needs a few rounds to pickup speed and commitment.
Cotto’s jab may not be enough to hurt Margarito. But it needsto be enough to deter him. It needs to be enough to have Margaritoa little off-balance when Cotto arrives at his chest. Otherwise,Cotto is going to find Margarito waiting for him with open andvoracious arms.
Asked last week if he was concerned about the bright lights of aLas Vegas superfight, Margarito had this to say: “Idon’t worry about the people, and I don’t worry aboutthe press. It will be just him and me in the ring.”
OK, that’s conference-call boilerplate. Ask 10 fighters thatquestion and nine will give you the same answer. But here’swhy Margarito means it: Volume punchers are immune to pressurebecause volume punchers don’t slump.
If a fighter sets a strategy of going forward and making contactwith his opponent’s body as often as possible -- though theheavens may fall -- he will succeed at doing exactly that. He maytake too many shots on the way in. He may find himself unconsciousbefore 36 minutes are up. But first he will have the satisfactionof feeling his knuckles sink into the meat of another man’sarms, shoulders and chest.
So long as Margarito is able to find Cotto, chances are good hewill entertain us when he does.
For Cotto it’s going to be trickier. He has to balanceexpectations of victory with being true to himself. It would bebetter for Cotto to lose by knockout than decision. If he is goingto see a blemish on his professional record, better that it happenwhile he fights his heart out -- rather than see judges favorMargarito’s activity over his safe precision.
Or, more likely, Cotto will realize in the first third of the fighthe can land his jab, establish a bit of distance and tag Margaritoon the way in. Such a realization will allow Cotto to box more thanwe want him to. But it will also assure Cotto’s place atopthe welterweight division.
Two years ago, when Cotto was more of a grinder than a boxer,I’d have taken Margarito in a pitched battle. This year, ifCotto allows a pitched battle to happen, I’ll take Margaritoagain. But I don’t think he will. So I’ll take Cotto ina good fight: SD-12.