Changing fortunes across the Taiwan strait

In 1971 the Republic of China on Taiwan lost its UN candidature to the People's Republic of China and its subsequent efforts to regain UN membership were opposed by PRC. Thus all the six proposed referendums so far could not muster a decisive support for the Taiwanese. The KMT and the DPP proposed two referendums, with the KMT accused by opponents of not being sincere in this effort. Although both the referendums attracted nearly 35 percent voters, and despite less affirmative votes cast in these referendums, these could not obtain the requisite majority support.

Taiwanese endorsement of the KMT to lead the country for the next four years appears to be more a reflection of the failures of the faction-ridden DPP and its policies in the last eight years than supporting the re-unification policies with China. Despite some progress under the DPP, unemployment rates have been gradually rising, internal debts mounting and corruption spreading, while economic growth rates were faltering despite a growth in cross-Straits business. Today Taiwan's business firms have pumped into China more than $300 billion (accounting for nearly one-third of direct investments in China), despite China's position and the targeting of Taiwan with nearly 1,000 short and medium range ballistic missiles.

While President-elect Ma indicated, during his electoral discussions that he is likely to endorse 'three links' with China (viz, direct air, sea and post and telecommunications), in addition to opening Taiwan for Chinese tourists and journalists and initiate 'common cross-Straits market' proposals, criticism of the KMT could escalate in the coming years if the KMT is seen as moving closer towards China. The United States and Japan [Images] would be closely monitoring the situation across the Straits. Against the backdrop of the current Chinese government's clamp-down on the protesting Tibetans, pro-unification efforts could prove costly for Taiwan.