World Agricultural Production - July 2008

Tag : forage cap
Australia Wheat Production Rebounds
Wheat production for 2008/09 is forecast at 25.0 million tons, up1.0 million or 4 percent from last month, and up 12.0 million or 91percent from last year. The large year-to-year rise in productionis the result of forecast increases in both area and yield. Area isforecast at a record 14.0 million hectares, up 0.5 million or 4percent from last month, and 1.66 million or 14 percent above lastyear. Yield is forecast at 1.79 tons per hectare, 67 percent abovelast year and well above the five-year average yield of 1.53 tonsper hectare. This season’s area increase is a culmination ofthree factors: improved rainfall, strong economic incentive forgrowers to recoup losses incurred during the 2006 and 2007droughts, and the conversion of last season’s pasture intofield crops. Rainfall was sufficient for timely planting of thisseason’s record area which occurred from April through July.The 2007 winter and summer drought severely impacted pasture growthwhich, combined with high feed grain prices throughout the country,led farmers to sell off large numbers of cattle and sheep.According to the Australia Bureau of Statistics, sheep numbers arethe lowest since 1925. Some of this unused pasture land will beconverted to wheat area.
( For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135. ) EU-27: Estimated Wheat Production Up Nearly 20 Percent from LastYear
The USDA estimates the 2008/09 European Union (EU-27) wheat crop at141.7 million tons, 1.7 million or 1 percent above last month and22.2 million or 19 percent above last year. Harvested area isestimated at 26.6 million hectares, unchanged from last month and1.9 million or 8 percent above last year. Yield is estimated at5.33 tons/ha, second only to the 2004/05 crop. A combination offactors has boosted potential wheat output this season. Prices wereat record highs at planting time. Following two consecutivedisappointing harvests, the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy(CAP) was modified to eliminate its mandatory 10-percent set-asiderequirement for area in 2008/09. Finally, weather in Europe hasbeen generally favorable in most growing regions since autumnplanting, with the exception of persistent late-spring dryness ineastern Germany and western Poland. Despite the dryness, however,local officials suggest that winter precipitation was adequate forwinter-crop development, and timely July rainfall benefited wheatin the grain-fill stage. The more pressing concern in this region,according to officials, is potential damage to spring-plantedcrops.
( For additional information, contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138. ) India Corn: Production Forecast at Near Record Level
The USDA forecasts 2008/09 India corn production at 18.5 milliontons, up 1.0 million or 6 percent from last month, but virtuallyunchanged from last season’s record production of 18.54million tons. Area is forecast at a record 8.4 million hectares,unchanged from last month and up 1 percent from last year. Thehigher estimated production is attributed to a forecast record areaand an above average yield following favorable sowing conditions inmajor growing states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh andGujarat. In addition, the increasing use of hybrid seeds isexpected to result in above average yields. According to thegovernment of India, sowing progress is outpacing last season. Asof July 4, sown area was 26 percent greater than at the same timelast year, and planting was estimated to be 32 percent complete.
( For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135. ) Russia: Estimated Corn Production Reduced by 1.0 Million Tons
The USDA estimates Russia corn production for 2008/09 at 5.8million tons, down 1.0 million or 15 percent from last month but up1.9 million or 47 percent from last year. Harvested area isestimated at 1.6 million hectares, down 0.2 million from last monthbut up 0.3 million from last year. The area revision is based onplanting-progress data released by the Ministry of Agriculture. Theforecast yield of 3.63 tons per hectare is down by 4 percent fromlast month due to localized dryness in parts of the southernCentral and central Southern Districts. Although timely rainfallduring the first week of July partially alleviated the dryness andweather data indicate that corn has suffered only minor damage, thecrop would benefit from additional rainfall as it advances towardthe heat- and moisture-sensitive reproductive stage.

According to information from the U.S. agricultural attachéin Moscow, two additional factors could hamper corn output thisyear. Following a steady increase in the use of hybrid plantingseed in Russia in recent years, producers this season have reportedshortages of high-quality planting seed. While difficult toquantify, a reduction in the use of hybrid seed would almostcertainly have a negative effect on yield. Furthermore, localreports indicate that some farmers in the Central District andSiberia who have started new dairy projects will likely considerharvesting corn at the milking or soft-grain stage for high qualityforage, rather than harvesting the crop for grain.
( For more information, contact Mark Lindeman at 202-690-0143. ) India Soybean: Second Largest Crop Forecast
India's 2008/09 soybean production is forecast at 8.7 million tons,unchanged from last month, but down 0.6 million or 6 percent fromlast year. The area is forecast at a record 9.1 million hectares,unchanged from last month, but up 0.3 million or 3 percent fromlast year. Higher government support prices for soybeans andincreasing government capacity in oilseed procurement will fuelincreased plantings. Better soybean returns received by farmerslast season as compared with competing crops are also expected toresult in a record area this season.

The major growing areas of central and eastern Madhya Pradeshreceived excellent rainfall for sowing, in contrast to parts ofwestern Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra where there has been belownormal rainfall as of July 5. Currently the 2008/09 forecastproduction will be second only to last season’s recordproduction. Yield for 2008/09 is forecast above average but belowthe record set partly because of last season’s abundant Julyrainfall. Soybeans are grown exclusively in the kharif season undermostly rainfed conditions. The ideal sowing window is early tomid-June and typically commences with the arrival of the monsoon.Some farmers are able to provide supplemental irrigation, thoughthis practice is limited by water reserves and equipment. The mainproducing states are Madhya Pradesh (53%), Maharashtra (34%), andRajasthan (8%).
( For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135. ) Higher China Barley Yields Due to Favorable Weather
China’s 2008/09 barley production is estimated at 3.5 milliontons, up 0.3 million from last month and last year. The winterbarley crop, grown primarily in central China, was planted inSep/Oct 2007 and harvested in May/June 2008. Abundant precipitationand seasonable temperatures in the spring created favorable growingconditions and raised yield prospects for the 2008/09 crop. Theweather has also been mostly favorable in northern China for thespring barley crop, now in the heading to grain fill stage.However, a persistent drought in the northwest provinces ofXinjiang and Gansu could result in yield losses.
( For more information, contact Paulette Sandene at 202-690-0133 ). Further Reading